2. AGRICULTURE IN TRANSITION: EXPERIENCE AND PERSPECTIVES OF UKRAINE
4. THE POLISH PRODUCTION AND TRADE POTENTIAL UNDER DIFFERENT POLICY OPTIONS
5. THE LOGISTIC FRAMEWORK OF THE GROWTH RATE OF GNP
6. IRREGULAR GROWTH CYCLES IN SOCIALIST ECONOMIES (1996)
7. AGRICULTURE FROM THE VIEW OF THE SAMUELSON MODEL OF BUSINESS CYCLES
8. AGRICULTURE AND A NONLINEAR MODEL OF BUSINESS CYCLE
9. THEORETICAL EXPANSION OF THE POLICY ANALYSIS MATRIX APPROACH (PAM) AND EMPIRICAL APPLICATIONS ON SLOVAKIAN AND POLISH AGRICULTURAL POLICIES.
10. ALBANIAN AGRICULTURE IN TRANSITION
11. LONG-TERM STRATEGY OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF ESTONIAN AGRICULTURE. ESTONIAN PRICE AND TRADE POLICIES IN LONG-TERM AGRICULTURAL STRATEGY.
12. FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER IN TRANSITION ECONOMIES: AN APPLICATION OF THE GTAP MODEL
13. NEW POSSIBILITIES OF VERTICAL CO-ORDINATION IN FOOD PRODUCTION IN THE EX-SOCIALIST COUNTRIES
14. ECONOMIC POLICY AND COMPETITIVENESS: A CASE STUDY OF HUNGARIAN FOOD INDUSTRY
15. THE DILEMMAS OF INTEGRATION IN THE TRANSITION OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN AGRICULTURE
16. FRAMEWORK FOR A STRATEGY FOR RURAL DEVELOPMENT
17. WHAT ARE WE TO EXPECT: ABUNDANCE OR FAMINE ?
This issue of the NAP Newsletter is dedicated to Abstracts of the most recent scientific papers elaborated by members of the Network for Agricultural Policy Research and Development (NAP).
The following abstracts have been provided by the authors. NAP has no judgement on the content of the papers to which the abstracts refer.
For any further information regarding the articles please contact the authors directly, whereas information regarding the NAP activities can be obtained through the Network Secretariat at the following e-mail address: write to Slobodanka.Teodosijevic@FAO.ORG
Document prepared for the Fourth Meeting of the Ministers of Agriculture from Central and Eastern European Countries, Bucharest, Romania, 2-4 May, 1997:
by:
Doucha, T. (Czech Republic) with collaboration of Messrs. Blaas, G. (Slovak Republic), Bojnec, S. (FAO/SEUR), Budavari, J. V. (FAO/REU), Csaki, C. (World Bank), Davidova, S. (Wye College, UK), Wilkin, J. (Poland)
Introduction
i. The document was prepared by several NAP experts (NAP: Network for Agricultural Policy Research and Development) from the Central and East European (CEE) countries for the Bucharest ministerial held in May 1997. It does not represent a result of a systematic research activity or a research project. The document focuses on selected key aspects of the institutional framework, felt as main emerging problems for the future necessary restructuring of the agri-food sectors (AFS) in the CEE countries, with an objective to start effective discussions on them.
ii. The document is oriented in principle at the CEE countries with association agreements with the EU („associated countries"), except for the Baltic states. From this point of view the document could form an incentive for the formation of pre-accession strategies of these countries. Nonetheless, the authors are convinced that some ideas presented could be a help for the other CEE countries and for the successor countries to the former Soviet Union, as well.
iii. The CEE countries, understandably, are relying on widely varying natural and socio-economic conditions for their development policies. They are also at slightly different stages of the transition process. Starting from such a different natural, technological, human and capital resource base on the one hand, and from their common goal of European integration on the other hand, the countries have to set up a well defined, long-term strategy for a sustainable agricultural and rural development. A well functioning institutional framework will have to be oriented to the specific priorities of the national development strategies. Such strategies may be e.g. rural development oriented or production and export oriented and they may treat the AFS as just one of many economic sectors or as a sector of high national preference for national economic development. The essential precondition is, however, that countries set up first a development strategy for their conditions and shape the institutional framework accordingly. If there is a lack of a comprehensive development strategy for the AFS, the institutional framework may follow a spontaneous path which certainly would not serve the interests of a rapid development.
Further contacts:
Dr. Doucha, Tomas, e-mail: write to doucha@v1.agrec.cz
Ing. Blaas, Gejza, e-mail: write to blaas@vuepp.sanet.sk
Dr. Bojnec, Stefan, e-mail:write to Stefan.Bojnec@field.fao.org
Dr. Budavari, V. Janos, e-mail:write to Janos Budavari@FAO.ORG
Dr. Csaba , Csaki, e-mail: write to CCsaki@Worldbank.org
Dr. Sophia Davidova,e-mail:write to S.Davidova@wye.ac.uk
Dr. Wilkin, Jerzy, e-mail:write to Wilkin@wne.uw.edu.pl
Ms. Slobodanka.Teodosijevic, Network Secretariat
e-mail: write to Slobodanka.Teodosijevic@FAO.ORG
(The document will be in distribution as a NAP Working Paper)
2. AGRICULTURE IN TRANSITION: EXPERIENCE AND PERSPECTIVES OF UKRAINE
Olga Dovbah
Kiev-Ukraine
e-mail: write to OLGA_DOVBAH@EUROPE.NOTES.PW.COM
or: write to DOVBAH@TICK.KIEV.UA
Abstract
The paper presents an analysis of the results of agro-industrial complex
reforms in the process of mass privatisation, land reform and agrarian enterprises
restructuring. It also defines the present agricultural facilities and suggests strategy for future development using the models of the dynamics of agricultural development as applied on the macroeconomic level.
The paper also presents results of an analysis of production, consumption and export potential calculated on the basis of a mathematical model in connection with the current situation of the Ukrainian economy and different variants of the state influence on the agrarian production. Elements of model systems for evaluating agrarian policy from the Institute of Agricultural & Food Policy, USA (FAPRI Modelling System at CARD) have been used for analysis .
In the analysis of the current situation and expected dynamics the
following indices are taken into account: world prices for agricultural products, domestic production cost, Ukrainian enterprises income, domestic sale prices and retail prices, number of population and their income, inflation level, national currency rate, weather conditions, available technical means and production technology.
Christopher Grace and David E. Kunkel
- Christopher Grace
Gardtcliff, South Ridge - St. George's Hill - Weybridge, Surrey - KT13 ONF UK
email: write to 113047.264@COMPUSERVE.COM
David E. Kunkel
- Ronco Consulting - 2301 M Street NW - Suite 400 - Washington DC- 20037 Washington - USA Fax: 202 785 2078
Abstract
In 1994, two thirds of the population lived in rural areas. The largest number of the farms, 200,000 out of 420 000, are found in the upland zone. The next largest number are in the coastal/level lands zones and the remainder are in the piedmont zone. While almost all of the farm operators under 65 years of age had at least a primary school education, very few of the female farm operators achieved a middle school (US grades 9 - 12) level of education.
The current small average size of farms - 1.1 hectares - and the highly fragmented farm structure - 4 parcels - mitigates against economies of scale and efficiency and generates little surplus for sale. In the upland zone, the available area for cropping of 8 dynums (0.8 hectare) very severely limits the ability of these farmers to support their families of average size of six persons. It is unlikely that this type of farm will continue to exist in the near future in its present form. The average crop production (wheat, maize, beans and alfalfa) per farm in the upland zone is below the national average with the exception of potatoes. The farm operators in the upland zone pay the highest prices for inorganic fertiliser, use the lowest quantities and are financially less well off than their counterparts in the level lands and piedmont zones.
Livestock and livestock products were the principal sources of gross cash income for farmers in all zones. The coastal/level lands farmer is the most likely to produce a surplus for sale, principally from the sale of livestock and livestock products. Farmers in the piedmont and upland zones are primarily subsistence farmers. Farmers in these zones are also more dependent on livestock since they are efficient in converting herbage and crop residues into fibre, meat, milk and by-products and hides.
Paper can be obtained from Christopher Grace;e mail: write to 113047264.COMPUSERVE.COM
4. THE POLISH PRODUCTION AND TRADE POTENTIAL UNDER DIFFERENT POLICY OPTIONS
Claudia A. Herok
Humboldt University Berlin
College of Agriculture and Horticulture
Chair for International Agricultural Trade and Development
Luisenstr. 56, D - 10099 Berlin, Germany
tel. +(49) - 30 - 20 93 61 50, fax +(49) - 30 - 20 93 63 01,
write to c.a.herok@rz.hu-berlin.de
Abstract
Poland embarked on both swift political and economic reform and is now underway in preparing agriculture and the economy at large for membership in the European Union (EU). Concerning the future development of Polish agricultural trade two types of variables are crucial: One are economic variables depending for the most part on the world-wide distribution of resources and technologies. The other are political conditions which are a function of government choice. In the case of Poland future agricultural policy options are strongly determined by the developments in the EU. After the reform of 1992 a discussion about further changes of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has already started. The date for accession has not been set yet and this increases the possibility that when Poland finally joins the EU the CAP might look different.
One possible approach to analyse variations of both aspects, economic and political, is the partial equilibrium trade model MISS (Modèle International Simplifié de Simulation). This model works in a comparative static way and allows the simulation of trade, policy and welfare effects. Furthermore with the help of a Political Payoff Function the model allows one to analyse the political economy of agricultural and trade policy decisions. With this model future changes in supply and demand can be simulated and be combined with different policy options.
Keywords: Poland, agricultural policy, EU Eastern Enlargement, trade effects, MISS- Model
5. THE LOGISTIC FRAMEWORK OF THE GROWTH RATE OF GNP
(1996) The Volume of Abstracts, XVI International Symposium on Forecasting, ISF'96, Financial Markets and Forecasting, Istanbul
Vesna Jablanovic
University of Belgrade -Faculty of Agriculture
Nemanjina 6 - 11081 Belgrade - Jugoslavia
E-mail:EJablano@ubbg.etf.bg.ac.yuwrite to EJablano@ubbg.eft.bg.ac.yu
Abstract
The meteorologist Lorenz discovered the lack of predictability in deterministic systems in the late fifties. The Lorenz effect, i.e. sensitive dependence on initial conditions, is the ingredient of deterministic chaos. Following Lorenz we use the logistic equation to describe the complexity of economic dynamics. Namely, business cycles are generated because the gap between potential and actual GNP widens and shrinks. Potential output is defined as the economy's high-employment output. It represents the maximum sustainable GNP.
In our model we will assume that actual GNP is restricted by potential GNP. We postulate that the growth rate of GNP should be proportional to the GNP gap. This premise leads to the logistic model, as a one-dimensional, discrete-time model. For this chaotic system we cannot accurately predict its transition from the present position to the next one. It is impossible to predict the long-run behaviour of chaotic system.
Keywords: GNP, chaotic system
6. IRREGULAR GROWTH CYCLES IN SOCIALIST ECONOMIES (1996)
Proceedings of the 3rd Balkan Conference on Operational Research, Thessaloniki
Vesna Jablanovic
University of Belgrade
e-mail : EJablano@ubbg.etf.bg.ac.yuwrite to EJablano@ubbg.etf.bg.ac.yu
Abstract
It is possible that a transition from a stable state or cycle into the chaotic region occurred in socialist countries. Many socialist countries switched into a period in which economic activity is much more erratic. The behaviour of many economic variables is much less predictable.
This paper discusses application of an endogenous growth model in socialist economies. The model we present and comment on was derived from the paper "Irregular Growth Cycles" which Day presented in The American Economic Review 72, in 1082.
Socialist countries are characterised by two types of capital. There are two institutional forms of ownership. These characteristic cause them to enter into production differently. We explore when irregular investment cycles exist.
Keywords: irregular growth cycles, chaos, socialist economies.
7. AGRICULTURE FROM THE VIEW OF THE SAMUELSON MODEL OF BUSINESS CYCLES
(1996) Abstracts of Posters, VII Congress of European Association of Agriculture Economists, Edinburgh. UK
Vesna Jablanovic
University of Belgrade
E-mail:EJablano@ubbg.etf.bg.ac.yuwrite to EJablano@ubbg.etf.bg.ac.yu
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to analyse the role of agriculture from the point of view of the Samuelson multiplier-acceleration model (1939) which seeks to explore the dynamic process of income determination. On the other hand, Kuznets (1971) has observed that long-term economic development is characterised by a succession of leading sectors. Namely, the growing product per capita meant a decreasing proportion in the economy in agriculture and a higher proportion on non-agricultural activities. Economic growth has been associated with far-reaching changes in the economic structure.
The central feature is the increase in the share of industry/services in total output and the decline in the share of agriculture as the economy develops. A decline of agricultural consumption explains much of the reduction as the economy grows. From a theoretical point of view, generalisation of the Samuelson model (1939) seems to us highly relevant because it allows to discuss the role of agriculture in economic development.
Keywords: Samuelson's model (1939), multiplier, acceleration principle, agriculture in cyclical fluctuation
8. AGRICULTURE AND A NONLINEAR MODEL OF BUSINESS CYCLE
(1997) Monograph of Faculty of Agriculture, (forthcoming)
Vesna Jablanovic
University of Belgrade
E-mail: EJablano@ubbg.etf.bg.ac.yuwrite to EJablano@ubbg.etf.bg.ac.yu
Abstract
By some slight modification the Samuelson multiplier-acceleration model (1939) will lead to chaotic behaviour of the endogenous variable. It will be shown how a classical multiplier-acceleration model will generate irregular movements of the endogenous variable as soon as agriculture and government spending are introduced. Within the chaotic region, the time path of this variable is highly sensitive to a variation of parameters or initial values. In this sense, only rather short-term predictions are useful.
Keywords: agriculture, government spending, multiplier-acceleration model, chaos.
9. THEORETICAL EXPANSION OF THE POLICY ANALYSIS MATRIX APPROACH (PAM) AND EMPIRICAL APPLICATIONS ON SLOVAKIAN AND POLISH AGRICULTURAL POLICIES.
Holger A. Kray
Humboldt University Berlin
College of Agriculture and Horticulture
Chair for International Agricultural Trade and Development
Luisenstr. 56, D - 10099 Berlin, Germany
tel. +(49) - 30 - 20 93 63 31, fax +(49) - 30 - 20 93 63 01
e-mail: holger.kray@rz.hu-berlin.dewrite to holger.kray@rz.hu-berlin.de
Abstract
The Policy Analysis Matrix approach (PAM) addresses the impacts of current policies and market imperfections on sectoral performance. Thus, it provides empirical estimates of economical efficiency and comparative advantage. Currently, this approach is applied in many policy consultancy projects, since it combines both precise empirical policy analysis on different aggregation levels and effective communication to political agents. A main objective of the study is to widen the basic PAM approach in order to separate policy and market influences causing price divergences on commodity and domestic factor markets. This is accomplished by developing a so-called "policy correction module (PCM)".
This expanded approach is applied on the agri-food sectors in the transition countries Slovakia and Poland. Initial transition conditions and sectoral endowment in both countries differ widely. Using an interlinked analysis framework, effects of current policies and market imperfections on primary agricultural production, as well as on the up- and downstream sectors and on consumer welfare are to be included. The analysis is carried out for a number of different regions and enterprise scales within the transition countries.
Keywords: Policy Analysis Matrix, PAM, agricultural policy, quantitative analysis, PCM, transaction costs, efficiency
10 ALBANIAN AGRICULTURE IN TRANSITION
David E. Kunkel
RONCO Consulting
2301 M Street NW
Suite 400
Washington DC - 20037 Washington-USA - fax: 202 785 2078
Conference on The Albanian Economy Towards a Free Market: Issues of Economic Policy.
December 13-14, 1996 Tirana, Albania
Abstract
At the beginning of the transition to a market economy in 1990, Albanian agriculture consisted of state farmers, co-operatives and small private land holdings. The change began with the decollectivization of co-operatives and later state farms. In 1994, 54% (227 000) of the 420 000 farm operators owned a tapi (title). By November 1995 almost all the farmers had either a tapi or a land use certificate to farm the land.
The change in land ownership was accompanied by a decrease in the cropped area. The estimated crop area in 1995 was 393 000 hectares of which 13.4% was reported to be idle. This change was accompanied by a shift in the crop mix. For cereals, the wheat area decreased from almost 50% of the cropped area to only 29%. Other crops such as rice, sunflower, cotton and sugar beets have almost ceased due to the collapse of the processing industry. There has been an increase in the production of vegetables and forage crops (alfalfa and maize). The former reflects greater on-farm self sufficiency whilst the latter emphasises livestock production, especially sheep and goats between 1994 and 1995.
11. LONG-TERM STRATEGY OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF ESTONIAN AGRICULTURE. ESTONIAN PRICE AND TRADE POLICIES IN LONG-TERM AGRICULTURAL STRATEGY.
Draft of the second chapter "Price and trade policies" - FAO project
Task force Leader: Loko, Valdek
Estonian members:
Akkel,Tõnu; Kaubi, Johannes; Koik, Enno; Maadvere, Ene; Ohvril, Tiiu; Silberg, Uno
FAO experts:
Norton, Roger; Jao, Shiao; Tarditi, Secondo.
The manuscript (30 pages) is available by E-mail:takkel@online.eewrite to takkel@online.ee
Abstract
Analyses of experiences of other countries and future forecasts of Estonian agriculture have shown that Estonian agriculture needs substantial support to survive. Maybe the EU support level - 1,5% subsidies from GDP by OECD methodology - will be sufficient. By experience of other countries, the need for subsidies has been increased according to GDP level which makes agricultural subsidies' linkage to GDP level reasonable.
Which concrete support measures will be chosen is of minor importance from the viewpoint of agriculture and rural life but having in mind future possible accession to EU it is reasonable to introduce CAP-like measures. From the total amount of EU subsidies calculated by OECD methodology the degree of price and tariff protection is approximately 60% and the rest is direct supports paid from the EU budget.
In future accession negotiations it should be kept in mind that in a very long term perspective Estonian agriculture will be as expensive as Finnish agriculture, so the same accession conditions should be suitable. It is also important to remember that in the conditions of rare rural settlement the support for agriculture, by the experience of other countries, has been the most efficient method to keep rural life sustainable. Actually, there is no experience that after liquidating agricultural production in regions of scarce settlement, rural life has survived.
12. FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER IN TRANSITION ECONOMIES: AN APPLICATION OF THE GTAP MODEL
Paper presented on the 50th EAAE-Seminar and
Follow-up Conference of the European Short Course in Global Trade Analysis
in Gießen, Germany, October 15 -17, 1996
by Hermann Lotze
Research Assistent, Department of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences
Humboldt University Berlin, Luisenstr. 56, 10117 Berlin, Germany
Tel +49-30-2093-6249, Fax -6301, E-mail: h.lotze@rz.hu-berlin.dewrite to h.lotze@rz.hu-berlin.de
Abstract
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is expected to contribute significantly to the process of economic restructuring in Central and Eastern Europe. In this paper the combined effects of capital and technology transfers into these countries are modelled in a CGE framework. Factor movements, trade and growth effects are analysed.
Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment; Central and Eastern Europe; welfare analysis; CGE model
The paper is available from the author upon request.
13. NEW POSSIBILITIES OF VERTICAL CO-ORDINATION IN FOOD PRODUCTION IN THE EX-SOCIALIST COUNTRIES
Prof. Dr. Sandor Somogyi (PATE Georgicon, Keszthely, Hungary)
Prof. Dr. Nebojsa Novkovic (Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad, Yugoslavia)
Vojislav Simanovic (Poljoprivredna Korporacija "Beograd", Yugoslavia)
Published by:
EAAE CONGRESS, EDINGBURGH, SEPTEMBER 1996
Further information: E-mail: H10784som@ella.huwrite to H10784som@ella.hu
Abstract
Large business systems in agricultural industry of the ex-socialist countries were established under the dominant influence of ideology and political will. In the non-market economy conditions they had a supplying and social-protection function. With the transition of economy and society on the whole in the ex-socialist countries the destruction of these big systems in agriculture has begun. The cause of their destruction lies in their disability to adjust themselves to changed conditions, and partially to (changed again) ideology.
This paper gives an analysis of the factors that have brought about the destruction of these large systems. Also an analysis is offered of a possible concept of sustainance of still existing agricultural systems and of reintegration of disintegrated ones into the economically efficient and market-competitive economic subjects.
Large economic systems should be organised on the principle of logistic chains. The necessity of their market existence lies in its vertical linkage with processing industry. Besides, in the conditions strongly marked by the significance of fragmented, small private farms, large systems should become production and organisation-economic integrators of agricultural production. One of the conditions for the increase of large systems' efficiency is in the change of management system, i.e. in the transition from a centralised to a hierarchical management system.
The paper presents a practical example of the transformation process - one of the largest agroindustrial systems in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia - the transformation which is in accordance with changes in both the economy and society on the whole.
Key words: large agrobusiness system, vertical integration, logistic chain, organisation, management
14. ECONOMIC POLICY AND COMPETITIVENESS: A CASE STUDY OF HUNGARIAN FOOD INDUSTRY
Dr. Sandor Somogyi, professor, Pannon University, Keszthely, Hungary
Dr. Zoltan Lakner, associate professor, University of Vegetables and Food Industry, Budapest, Hungary
Published by:
INI AGROEKONOMIK, BEOGRAD, 1997
Further information: e-mail: H10784som@ella.huwrite to H10784som@ella.hu
Abstract
The Hungarian food industry plays an important role in Hungarian foreign trade. Based on stable former COMECON export, considerable state subsidies and a safe position on home market, the food industry has been rapidly developed during the past decades. The collapse of COMECON, declining domestic purchasing power, import liberalisation and general economic crisis created a new situation. Using Porter's approach, the article analyses the competitive position of the Hungarian food industry as a function of resource utilisation, home market, industrial structure and corporate strategies, as well as economic position of related and supporting industries. The article underlines the importance of governmental economic policy in the process of privatisation and market building.
Key words: competitiveness, economic policy, privatisation, food industry.
15. THE DILEMMAS OF INTEGRATION IN THE TRANSITION OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN AGRICULTURE
Prof. Dr. Sandor Somogyi, (PATE Georgicon, Keszhely, Hungary)
Published by:
TÉR ÉS TÁRSADALOM 10 1996-4 (p.27-38)
Regionális Kutatások Központja, Pécs
Further information: e-mail: H10784som@ella.huwrite to H10784som@ella.hu
Abstract
It is characteristic of Eastern Europe that the conditions swing between harmonisation and disharmonisation and integration-disintegration. Never-ending combats of interests and counter-interests are taking place before us and we cannot avoid being part of it.
In our region the need for forced development, economic activity to the detriment of the natural resources (that is typical of the less developed region) and environmental pollution inevitably appeared. Keeping up with the developed countries is thus a double burden. It is not only the need for development that takes the resources but also environmental investments have to be carried out in order to make the national economies conform to western European standards.
In the countries of the region, agricultural production plays a relatively more important role than in the EU, considering the size of agricultural areas and the contribution of this sector to GDP and employment.
Ecological problems are continuously on the surface: in developed countries because of the splendid quality of life, in developing countries because of quantitative development and the necessity of transformation.
Transformation is presently taking place in the region, and a new phase of technological development is gaining ground. We have to emphasise, however, that we cannot rely exclusively upon analogy - comparisons with the solution of the past -, but we have to build on new development concepts.
We must not think in terms of technologies developed in the past period, which neglected the problems of land, raw material and energy, but we have to introduce new technologies which take the economic use of land, energy and raw materials into consideration.
16. FRAMEWORK FOR A STRATEGY FOR RURAL DEVELOPMENT
Ed Rossmiller, Frances Sandiford and Slobodanka B. Teodosijevic
Abstract
Rural development is defined as those institutions, activities and linkages that combine to improve the economic and social well-being of people in rural communities. Many countries and communities have attempted to mount programs and projects to promote, enhance or change the course of development in their rural areas, with very mixed results. Vital to the success of rural development efforts are an enabling macroeconomic and social environment, a well functioning civil society and a sense of community, an expanding economic base, a local government with adequate resources and individual enterpreneurship. A number of decisions must be agreed relating to the role of government and of the private sector in the economic activity of the rural community and a clear understanding of the trade-offs is necessary before a strategy for rural development can be contemplated.
The authors are Chief, ESAC/FAO, Agricultural Policy Consultant and Research Economist ESACE/FAO, respectively. The views expressed are the author's own and do not reflect the views or position of FAO. Paper presented at a workshop on A Rural Development Strategy for Slovakia, Mlynky, Slovakia, 15-18 September, 1996.
(The paper can be obtained through e-mail: Slobodanka.Teodosijevic@FAO.ORGwrite to Slobodanka.Teodosijevic@FAO.ORG
17. WHAT ARE WE TO EXPECT: ABUNDANCE OR FAMINE ?
Dr. Danilo Tomic
Research Associate
Institute of Agricultural Economics - Cara Urosa 53 st. no. 54-
1100 Belgrade - Jugoslavia
e-mail: NAUKA@smrns.sv.gov.juwrite to NAUKA@smrns.sv.gov.ju
Abstract
(1) Mankind is faced with a very serious question: "What is the future bringing to our planet - abundance or famine?" A significant number of outstanding economists and other experts have for decades been concerned about this problem and hundreds of pages discussing it have been published.
(2) Among the major reasons for a serious approach to and study of this problem are the following three: permanent growth of world population; limited natural resources; ever growing hyperproduction of food in highly developed countries on one side and food shortages and malnutrition in the developing ones, on the other.
(3) The problem of food insecurity in the developing countries has resulted from underdeveloped economy and low purchase power of a great majority of population, and can only be solved if poverty is eliminated and development process initiated.
(4) Government's role in the developing countries is a very important one: by means of economic policy measures GNI is (in) adequately distributed, influencing both economic development and the purchase power. Synchronised measures of economic, development and social policies can at least partly solve the problem of hunger.
(5) On the global level, the economy is getting more capital-intensive and energy-intensive due to demographic explosion and limited resources. Chemicals and mechanisation result in increased yields, but in unbalanced water-air regime of soil as well. The quality of food is getting worse.
(6) The conflict between ambitious development goals and rational use of natural resources is becoming deeper. The idea of sustainable development has recently been given full attention and argued upon by numerous outstanding experts.
(7) Transformation of traditional agriculture into a modern one is a slow process in the developing countries. They lag behind the developed ones and are faced with the necessity of developing science, technology and education - as the key factors of agricultural development, in addition to a maximum support of international financial institutions through joint development-research project.
Abstracts edited by :
Slobodanka B. Teodosijevic
Network Secretariat
Rome, 1997